Topic: 2024 Election Analysis
Seth Keshel: Pacific Northwest 2024 Presidential Election Review
This portion of the 2024 Election Compendium focuses on two states in a region I am referring to as the “Pacific Northwest” – Oregon and Washington.
Outcomes
Oregon Harris +14.4%
Washington Harris +18.3%
My Predictions
Oregon Harris by minimum of 12.0%
Washington Harris by minimum of 14.0%
Preface
The Pacific Northwest is a hotbed of national corruption and bad ideas regarding election administration. Both states have substantial working-class populations, which work primarily in the fishing and timber industries, but are also heavily populated by urban white liberals, who until recently had begun to show an establishment-populist split that threatened to create strongholds further to the political left of nearly anything else in America.
Both states rate among the worst for election law in America and remind me of Colorado with the way elections are run. Oregon pioneered mass mail-in balloting in America starting in the 1990s and ran its first presidential election with the practice in 2000. Both are universal mail-in balloting states, with rampant ballot harvesting destroying the integrity of all races on the ballot, especially those down ballot that can be decided by tens of votes, or even fewer. To no one’s surprise, neither state has backed the GOP presidential nominee this millennium (Reagan was the last Republican presidential nominee to carry them in 1984), and in fact, neither have had a Republican governor since the 1980s. For these reasons, even though beneath all the cheating I can spot a large working-class shift rightward, I had no doubt Harris would carry these states handily. While the nation moved six points to the right, Oregon and Washington barely inched right from where they sat in 2020.
In Washington, where voters are not registered by party, 23 of 39 counties (59.0%) shifted more Republican in percentage margin, meaning Trump won them by more than he did in 2020, or lost them by less.
Share This Post...
